Next month, Aurora Cannabis Inc. (TSX: ACB) (Nasdaq: ACB) will release fourth quarter financial results and we expect the market to be highly focused on the numbers that are reported and any forward looking guidance from the management team.
In the prior quarter, the Canadian Licensed Producer reported positive earnings per share (EPS) which surprised us. The positive EPS in the third quarter follows a few quarters of Aurora Cannabis recording negative EPS that also came in lower than what analysts expected.
We believe 2022 is a make or break year for Aurora Cannabis and expect its success or failure to be determined by the following seven factors:
- Federal Legalization in the US – The management team has experience in the US cannabidiol (CBD) market. Aurora Cannabis expects the US to be a primary growth driver once cannabis is legalized or decriminalized at the federal level. We have been highly focused on the advancement of pro-cannabis legislation and will be closely following the trend in 2022
- Effective Cash Management – Aurora Cannabis was previously well-known for having a war chest of cash to grow the business. The company’s balance sheet is not nearly as strong as it used to be and we will monitor how the remaining resources are used to efficiently grow the business
- Reporting Lower Amounts of Revenue per Quarter – In 2021, Aurora Cannabis’ fundamentals weakened and this is a trend we are highly focused on. Last year, the company reported a decline in the amount of quarterly revenue that generated and this is a metric we are highly focused on. Going forward, we will be curious to see how much revenue is generated in Canada or abroad. We are also focused on the verticals that will generate the most revenue for the business and believe our readers should follow this trend
- Focused on Becoming Profitable – Although 2021 was a tough year for Aurora Cannabis, the management team has been executing on a cost cutting strategy. We consider this to be core initiative of the company and will monitor the impact on profitability in future quarters. During the last year, total quarterly expenses has declined and we will follow this trend in 2022 and beyond
- Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) – During the last five years, Aurora Cannabis has reported a series of what was expected to be accretive M&A deals. Last year, the company became less active on the M&A front and we attribute the change to lower amount of resources available. Due to the recent performance of Aurora Cannabis, we would not be surprised if acquisition targets are not interested in stock-based transactions and will monitor how this aspect of the story changes in 2022
- COVID Lockdowns and Supply Chain Issues– During the COVID pandemic, Canada has issued several lockdowns orders which have put pressure on the entire economy. Although the legal cannabis industry reported strong growth in 2021, supply chain issues and lockdown orders have put pressure on operators. From retailers to cannabis infused product manufactures, Aurora Cannabis has been impacted by these factors and we will monitor how the business continues to be pressured in 2022
- International Markets – A few years ago, Aurora Cannabis acquired several operators to have additional leverage to the domestic and international cannabis opportunity. Since then, several of the assets that were acquired were divested or written off. The company still has some leverage to certain international markets and we expect this aspect of the story to have an impact on the business over the long-term
In 2021, the price of Aurora Cannabis’ stock dropped more than 35% and ended the year with a market capitalization of approx. C$1.35 billion. At current levels, we find the risk-reward profile to be challenged and believe the business faces considerable headwinds. We continue to wait for the new management team to impress us and will monitor how the story evolves in 2022.
If you are interested in learning about Aurora Cannabis, please send an email to support@technical420.com with the subject “Aurora Cannabis” to learn more.
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